Market Update - 2007
Bernanke & Co. are seen holding steady, but will the Fed note the subprime mortgage mess,
and hint at a future rate cut?
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has been in the news a lot lately. So it's only
fitting to use one of the Maestro's more memorable expressions to describe the situation that the current Fed finds itself
in: a "conundrum."When the Fed's policymakers wrap up a two-day meeting Wednesday, they're widely expected to keep the federal
funds rate, a key short-term rate that influences rates on consumer and corporate loans, at 5.25 percent for the sixth consecutive
meeting. Investors, however, are more concerned about what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues will do for the remainder
of the year. Just a few weeks ago, the consensus was that the central bank would leave interest rates at 5.25 percent for
the remainder of the year.
Subprime: The risk to Wall Street
That was before the subprime mortgage market imploded, leading to stomach-churning volatility
in the stock market - and fears that more weakness in housing, and tighter credit in general, would hurt the broader economy,
and possibly even spark a recession. Greenspan has made recent comments about the risk of subprime woes spreading to other
areas of the economy and warned late last month about the possibility of a recession by the end of the year.What's more, retail
sales rose just 0.1 percent in February, a possible sign that the consumer may finally be feeling a pinch after the Fed's
17 consecutive rate hikes from June 2004 through June of last year.Now, according to futures contracts on the Chicago Board
of Trade, investors are betting on a strong likelihood of a rate cut by the summer and another one by year's end, which would
leave the fed funds rate at 4.75 percent."The Fed could cut rates anywhere between a quarter of a percentage point and a half
of a point later this year," said Matthew Smith, president and chief investment officer with Smith Affiliated Capital, an
investment advisory firm based in New York. "The problems in subprime are like the hidden cockroach theory. You don't know
how deep and how massive this will get until more companies start spilling red ink."
But here's the conundrum. Inflation isn't going away.
A surprisingly strong jump in wholesale prices last month, and a slightly higher-than-expected-rise
in consumer prices, are proof to some Fed watchers that inflation remains a threat that needs to be kept in check.In addition,
hourly wages grew at a higher-than-anticipated rate in February - and rising wages are considered the biggest contributing
factor to inflation pressures.
Fuel, food push prices higher
Therefore, despite mounting evidence of a possible economic slowdown and the turmoil on Wall
Street, the Fed may have no choice but to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future - or perhaps even raise rates again,
some economists argue."Look at the inflation numbers and wage numbers. The Fed may have to hit this one more time down the
road with another rate hike," said Scott Martin, managing director of investments with Astor Asset Management, a money management
firm based in Chicago.
Forget about the NCAA Tournament. This is your real March Madness.With all this in mind, investors
will probably be paying even more attention than usual to what the Fed says in its statement about the economic outlook. For
the past few meetings, the central bank maintained that growth is "likely to expand at a moderate pace" and that "some inflation
risks remain."Some think that language may have to change in light of the worries about the possibility of mortgage defaults
continuing to rise, which could further dampen consumer spending."The economy is clearly weakening now and a lot depends on
the housing market," said Michael Pietronico, a municipal bond portfolio manager with Evergreen Investments. "This meeting
will be the most interesting Fed meeting in the past three or four meetings. It's hard to imagine the Fed just talking about
inflation. They should acknowledge that the risks of the economy slowing are greater than they had been."
Weak sales: Bad sign for consumer spending?
But some analysts say the Fed may not want to tip its hand about its future intentions just
yet since it's too soon to say how serious the problems from the subprime mortgage market will be.Steven Bleiberg, head of
global asset allocation for Legg Mason, said the Fed may want to let the mortgage problems sort themselves out. With interest
rates still at relatively low levels, he thinks the last thing the central bank wants to do is lower rates further and cause
the housing market to heat up again."The Fed may throw something in the statement to people to indicate that they are paying
attention to the mortgage market and not ignoring it," Bleiberg said. "But they are conscious of the criticism that, by cutting
rates as aggressively as they did six years ago and keeping rates as low as they did for as long as they did, they created
the situation for easy financing which caused this problem in the mortgage market."In the wake of the tech bubble's bursting
in 2000, a recession and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the Fed slashed rates from 6.5 percent at the start of 2001 to 1.75
percent by the end of the year. The Fed cut rates once more in 2002 and again in 2003 to bring them to 1 percent and left
them there until June 2004.
Wholesale prices shoot higher
But several Fed watchers said they think the biggest difference between the Bernanke-led Fed
and Greenspan's Fed is that Bernanke is probably not paying as much attention to the financial markets as his predecessor.
So don't expect the Fed to change its tune just because of the twists and turns on Wall Street."A 400-point drop in the Dow
is not going to get this Fed nervous," said Evergreen's Pietronico, who describes Bernanke as more "inflation-phobic" than
Greenspan. Astor's Martin agrees. He thinks that Bernanke is more interested in hard-core economic data and less with market
psychology."I really think the Fed is not watching the stock market. I'd like to think that with all the volatility they are
viewing it more as emotionally driven trading as opposed to an actual economic crisis," said Martin.So investors hoping for
the Fed to signal that it's ready to start cutting rates several times this year might be disappointed."My instinct is the
Fed is going to more or less leave things alone in its statement," said David Joy, chief market strategist for RiverSource
Investments. "The Fed's primary concern is still going to be inflation. There is weakness in housing but beyond that, the
Fed probably doesn't think the economy has changed."As such, Joy thinks the Fed might cut rates once later this year, and
then might start raising them again.
It looks like the FED has decided they raised rates too high too fast, and they are a bit concerned
that the housing market and rate of foreclosures may be higher than they wanted. Although the raise in interest rates over
the last few years did American's good in the long run, the short term results are VERY painful. So, overall it appears the
FED will keep rates about the same over the next couple of years. This means less people will be able to afford to buy houses
in the next few years because rates will be too high and banks will have to demand more money down. And now with the recent
news that SUB PRIME (loans to people with less than perfect credit) lending has been halted nationwide, panic has begun. If
YOU have fair or poor credit and not much money to put down, RENTING might be a good option until you can improve your situation,
or the market changes. In many cases now, it is cheaper to rent a large house than to try to buy one!! This is completely
opposite of just a few years ago after 9-11 when rates were low and banks would give "almost anyone a loan." At RENT@OWNLOUISVILLE,
we feel like our LAND CONTRACT program is a wonderful hybrid for people to use to "rent a house, without throwing their money
away on rent." Once you get into our LAND CONTRACT program, your "rent" is tax deductible, and you are building equity in
the house, yet you don’t have to deal with banks until YOU are ready! In the wake of the current market, our company
has been growing dramatically and we expect the trend to continue. I will continue to "get everyone into a property" as I
declared when I started the company a few years ago. Contact me for a consultation anytime!
Best Regards,
Mike Howard - President